China's exports climb value chain, feeding into US trade tensions

Machinery and components overtake consumer goods

 
A production line for robotic arms in China. The world’s factory now exports high-value-added products like machinery and parts essential for manufacturing in other nations, rather than toys. 

TOKYO — China has transitioned into an export base for high-value-added products such as manufacturing equipment and components, Japan’s Cabinet Office said in a report Tuesday, a trend that could impact production worldwide in light of the trade war.

Known as the world’s factory, China has traditionally imported value-added parts to produce consumer goods for export. But the country’s manufacturers have gradually acquired the technology to produce intermediary and capital goods at home.

“The Chinese economy’s rising presence is behind the U.S.-China trade tensions,” the Cabinet Office report said.

 

Should imports of value-added parts and goods from China decline due to U.S. tariffs on the country, “American auto and semiconductor exports will be affected,” the report said. In addition to developed countries, U.S.-China trade tensions “may be widely felt in emerging Asian countries, which have deepened ties with China’s export industry.”

China has shifted from producing textiles and assembling toys mainly to manufacturing electronics, high-quality components and machinery for export. Intermediary and capital goods comprised 41.1% and 31.2% of China’s exports in 2016, respectively, with both increasing by over 10 percentage points compared with 2000. The share of consumer goods, meanwhile, dropped more than 21 percentage points over the same period to 27%.

Of its exports, the percentage of value-added products made domestically reached 87.1% in 2018, edging out the U.S. at 86.7% and Japan at 79.4%.

High-value-added parts are essential for the U.S. manufacturing industry. About 13% of the added value in U.S. exports came from parts and other items produced overseas in 2018. Of that amount, China’s share soared to 12% from 4.9% in 2000. Japan’s share fell to 5.6% from 13.6% over the same period.

As the U.S.’s largest trading partner, China accounted for 21.6% of America’s total imports in 2017. That is nearly the same level as Japan’s share of 22.4% in 1986, when trade tensions between Tokyo and Washington flared up.

The Cabinet Office report cites International Monetary Fund estimates that the trade war would potentially cut global gross domestic product by 0.78% this year and 0.82% in 2020. The figures are based on the U.S. imposing additional tariffs of 25% on imported vehicles and auto parts, with capital investment dampened as a result. By country, such conditions would suppress China’s GDP by 1.63% in 2019 and 1.41% in 2020 while taking a 0.91% and 0.95% bite out of the U.S. economy in the same years.